What are the specific methods of trend trading?

2024-05-18

The methods of trend trading are mainly divided into two categories:

1. Trend-following trading methods without selection.

2. Selective trend trading methods.

Trend-following trading methods without selection refer to the practice of holding orders continuously according to certain criteria, regardless of the direction in which the market moves in a trend, profits can be made. For example, the trend trading strategy discussed in "The Turtle Trading Rules," and also the method of following trends using channel lines as described in the book "Trend Trading," fall into this category.

The advantage of this approach is that the operation is very simple, and because orders are held continuously, one does not miss out on market movements. However, due to the continuous holding of orders, in a volatile market, there can be a series of stop losses, leading to significant losses and a deterioration in the trader's mindset.

Selective trend trading methods involve traders using indicators to filter and trade in trending markets. They enter the market when the market conditions meet the requirements of the technical indicators and there is an expectation of a trend continuation. For instance, in "Trend Trading," once the market breaks through the trend line, channel line, and inflection points confirm a reversal, then they trade the trend following the reversal.

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The advantage of selectively trading is that it can avoid continuous stop losses in a volatile market. The downside is that filtering with indicators may potentially miss out on trends.

Below, I will explain these two methods using charts for a clearer and more understandable explanation.

1. Trend-following trading method without selection.

In Chapter 10 of "The Turtle Trading Rules," the "Double Moving Average System" is a trading system where orders are always in the market, utilizing two moving averages, 100 and 350.I'll give an example: when the 100-day moving average crosses above the 350-day moving average, buy and hold a long position until the 100-day moving average crosses below the 350-day moving average, at which point you close the long position and go short. After entering a short position, hold it until the 100-day moving average crosses above the 350-day moving average, then close the short position and open a long position. Throughout the entire trading system, long and short positions alternate in a cycle, never interrupting.

Let's discuss some precautions for this trading system:

(1) Continuous trading can lead to significant losses in a volatile market, so it's crucial to keep positions light.

(2) Choose commodities with strong trends for trading, such as gold and crude oil.

2. Selective trend trading method.

The method explained in "Trend Trading" is as follows: when the price breaks through the trendline, channel line, and inflection point, it confirms a trend reversal. Only trade the trend after the reversal; do not trade at other times.

Because the market needs to be filtered, this trading method may miss entry opportunities in some V-shaped, rapid reversals, thus missing out on the trend.

To conclude:

Today, I've shared two trend trading methods, which are merely two trading ideas for you all. They are not complete trading systems, so do not start trading with them immediately.

You can use familiar technical indicators to build your own trading system based on these two ideas. Always backtest before going live with real trades.Among these two methods, I would recommend the second one more, because a trend-following system without selection can be very uncomfortable when encountering a drawdown period, with continuous losses making it difficult to execute and demanding a high level of trading psychology from the trader. The second method will filter out some of the volatile market conditions, making the drawdowns more moderate and more conducive to execution.

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